Venezuelans Seek Asylum in the US

Via the Pew Research Center:

Venezuela is now among the top nations of origin for asylum applicants to the U.S., accounting for 10,221 applications filed between October 2015 and June 2016 � up from 3,810 filed during the same time period the year before.

My first reaction was to question how likely it was that asylum would be granted. I've testified in asylum cases and "well-founded fear of persecution" is a high bar. It's not just about country conditions, no matter how awful they might be. But because the U.S. immigration courts are so horribly clogged, we just don't know--the article notes that some Venezuela cases have been sitting since 2011.

Regardless, right now more Venezuelans are seeking asylum than any other country except China and Mexico. The signs of political and economic collapse are just everywhere.

Venezuelans Seek Asylum in the US

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Petrocaribe and Venezuelan Hunger

Petrocaribe was going to be a way for Venezuela to lead a bloc of left-leaning countries in solidarity. It would end dependence on the United States. As Hugo Ch�vez put it back in 2007:

"We have begun to create a new geopolitics of oil that is not at the service of the interests of imperialism and big capitalists," Mr Chavez said in his speech.

Ironically, it strengthened dependence on oil prices and Americans (among others) buying oil. As oil prices unraveled, so did the agreement. Now it has reached a new low, where Jamaica is going to pay off its debts with food and other necessities because Venezuelans are going hungry and hospitals need supplies.

In a statement to the state news agency, Jamaica Information Service, government minister Ruel Reid said: "This decision is taken primarily to give support in the form of medicine, food and fertiliser".

To be fair, part of the Petrocaribe concept was to allow countries to pay back as they could, including with food or whatever else. But that was supposed to be determined by their need, not the dire need of the Venezuelan people themselves.

This is perhaps the final nail in the coffin of Venezuelan foreign policy, which was based on merging ideology and oil money. Once the oil money started to dwindle, so did external interest in the ideology.

Petrocaribe and Venezuelan Hunger

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Venezuela Recall Moves Along

We all should know by now the importance of timing for a possible recall referendum in Venezuela. If it happens before January 10, 2017 there will be a new election. The government, knowing a loss is quite likely, is stalling as much as possible. But it also knows that completely shutting down the recall effort could lead to serious consequences, so it has let the opposition through the first hurdle, which is certifying 1% of voter signatures in each state. It took three months to make that decision.

The next step is to get 20% of voter signatures (about 4 million) and it is widely reported that must happen within three days (that is not in the constitution--I haven't actually seen the relevant law). The opposition has traditionally been fractured, but I have to assume they've been planning that effort for months--it will take a ton of organization.

The government is stuck. It does not want this to go forward quickly, and is undermining it in a number of different ways (such as lawsuits). But it also cannot just say it won't happen, especially since the international community has set its mind on having a vote. The most likely scenario is allowing a vote on January 11 (yes, I could even see it being that brazen) which, if lost, would still keep Chavismo in power a little longer.

Venezuela Recall Moves Along

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Imbalance of Power Venezuela

If the Supreme Court says you cannot swear in legislators, and you do so anyway while saying you will not obey the Supreme Court, then you're getting pretty close to civil war. That's the case in Venezuela, where the three legislators who would give the opposition a 2/3 majority were denied by the court, which didn't have any plans for resolving the issue.

The executive branch does not recognize the legislative branch. The judicial branch tries to block the legislative branch, and the legislative branch ignores the judicial branch and mocks the executive branch.

In Latin American presidential systems, extreme conflict between branches of government have been solved by coups and/or fighting. Something has to give. If the opposition passes legislation, so what? It doesn't exist if it isn't enforced the executive branch. Ultimately, this comes down to power, and the military represents the ultimate power of the state (yes, police can also be important but in Venezuela and elsewhere it's been the army).

The other solution is a referendum, which is monitored and where everyone agrees to accept the outcome. The question is whether, after so many years of talking about how many elections Hugo Ch�vez won, the government will even accept voting.

Imbalance of Power Venezuela

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